As the U.S. heads into the winter of 2025 and 2026, cannabis policy remains in flux. Key federal and state developments could significantly reshape the industry in the coming year, with changes ranging from rescheduling debates to evolving hemp laws and emerging adult-use markets.
Federal Developments: Rescheduling and Reform
At the federal level, the most significant storyline continues to be the proposed rescheduling of cannabis. In May 2024, the Department of Justice formally initiated the process to move marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act. This action followed an extensive review by the Department of Health and Human Services, which determined that cannabis has accepted medical use and a lower potential for abuse compared to drugs in Schedules I and II.
While this proposed change was widely celebrated, the rule has yet to take effect due to ongoing administrative challenges and public comments. Analysts expect that finalization could extend into late 2025 or early 2026. If completed, rescheduling would not legalize cannabis but could alleviate significant tax burdens on cannabis businesses by removing Section 280E restrictions and opening new research pathways.
Banking and Financial Policy
Another pivotal issue heading into 2026 is banking reform. The bipartisan Secure and Fair Enforcement Regulation (SAFER) Banking Act—an evolution of the earlier SAFE Banking Act—continues to move slowly through Congress. Despite broad support from state attorneys general, law enforcement groups, and industry associations, final passage has yet to occur. Banking access remains a critical safety issue for cannabis businesses, forcing many to operate in cash-heavy environments that raise risks for theft and noncompliance.
Observers expect incremental progress on financial reform, such as updated Treasury guidance or pilot programs at the state level, while comprehensive legislation remains uncertain in the current political climate.
Workplace and Safety Regulations
Rescheduling would not immediately change federal workplace rules. The Department of Transportation and other federal agencies have reiterated that safety-sensitive employees—such as pilots, truck drivers, and federal contractors—will remain subject to current drug testing policies regardless of scheduling status. Employers across both public and private sectors are urged to monitor agency updates as policy evolves through 2026.
Hemp-Derived Products and the Farm Bill Debate
The 2025–2026 period is also expected to bring decisive federal action on hemp-derived intoxicants like Delta-8 THC and THCA products. Lawmakers are revisiting definitions established in the 2018 Farm Bill, considering a “total THC” standard that could close loopholes allowing psychoactive hemp products to be sold outside state-licensed marijuana systems.
At the state level, regulation of hemp-derived intoxicants is tightening. States such as Ohio have issued emergency orders restricting sales outside licensed cannabis dispensaries, while others are moving toward integrated regulation or outright bans. These developments foreshadow a 2026 landscape where federal and state definitions of hemp may align more closely, reshaping the entire hemp-derived market.
State-Level Expansion and Divergence
Several states are at pivotal stages in their cannabis journeys. Ohio’s adult-use market, launched in August 2024, continues to expand amid local moratoriums and evolving municipal oversight. Expect additional rule adjustments and new retail openings through 2026.
Minnesota’s Office of Cannabis Management has accelerated its adult-use rollout, opening new licensing rounds and allowing limited retail sales in 2025. The full system is projected to scale throughout 2026 as local governments finalize implementation frameworks.
Meanwhile, Pennsylvania’s legalization effort advanced in 2025 when the state House passed an adult-use bill, but the Senate has yet to act. Disagreements over tax rates, distribution models, and social equity provisions may delay progress into 2026.
In contrast, Florida voters supported a 2024 adult-use initiative by a simple majority, but it failed to meet the state’s required 60% threshold. Consequently, any recreational market expansion there is unlikely before 2027.
Consumer and Veteran Policy Notes
Federal policy continues to allow veterans to discuss cannabis use with VA providers without losing benefits, though clinicians cannot yet recommend state medical programs. Additionally, consumers should remain aware that possession and use remain prohibited on federal property, even in legalized states, and that employers retain discretion over cannabis-related workplace policies.
Outlook for 2026
As 2026 approaches, cannabis rescheduling remains the most consequential—and unresolved—policy issue at the federal level. Banking reform may progress incrementally, hemp regulations are poised for redefinition, and state markets are maturing unevenly. For operators and consumers alike, the next year represents a period of cautious optimism: one defined by policy transition, expanding normalization, and a continued push for clarity across America’s fragmented cannabis landscape.